The full employment era, 194~6 Rising unemployment, 1966-74 Recession years, 1974-77 An analysis of the long-term effects of different policies 104 The effects of macroeconomic policy Other policies 110 9 Can we get back to full employment? Contents vii 10 A measure of the full employment rate of unemployment in the UK, by Robert A. Laslett Preface This book has grown out of two papers which Robert Laslett and myself prepared for a seminar held at Nuffi.eld College on 25th and 26th November 1977. The seminar was the first of a series intended to discuss important policy issues. The idea of holding them originated with A. H. Halsey and Sir Claus Moser, and the topic for this seminar was suggested by Sam Brittan. Both Robert Laslett and myself are grateful to them, and also to the Warden of Nuffi.eld, Sir Norman Chester, who chaired the proceedings, and to all those who attended the seminar and contributed many critical and constructive comments. In particular, we wish to thank those who opened the discussions: Sam Brittan, Jim Durcan, Lord McCarthy and Sir Donald MacDougall. I owe a special debt of gratitude to Sir Donald, who taught me most of the economics I ever knew, and whose own article on 'Inflation in the United Kingdom' said most of what needed to be said nearly 20 years ago. John Flemming's comments and suggestions were also very val1:1able, not least for Robert Laslett's chapter. The analysis and conclusions which follow have benefited greatly from all of these, as well as from some others who did not attend the seminar. The authors alone remain responsible for the mistakes made and for the views expressed. M.FG.S. 28th April, 1978
Figures 2.1, 2.2 and 5.1 are taken from an article summansmg the Report of a Working Party s~t up by the Department of Employment to study the changed relationship between unemployment and vacancies which appeared in the Department of Employment Gazette, October, 1976. The permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office to reproduce these is gratefully acknowledged.
(2) Series in Col. ( 1) deflated by that in Col. (3 ).
(3) National Institute Economic Review, linking series there given. From 1974 on the series are stated to exclude seasonal foods, but it is not thought that this significantly affects the annual average. (4) Total registered unemployment in the U.K. (annual average of monthly figures), excuding temporarily stopped but including schoolleavers and adult students, as a percentage of mid-year numbers of employees in civil employment plus annual average unemployment.
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