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nexusstc/预测：方法与实践 中文第二版/eba6f7ba3094b9d81184be9e4865818c.epub
预测:方法与实践 中文第二版 🔍
it-ebooks iBooker it-ebooks, it-ebooks-2019, 2019
英语 [en] · 中文 [zh] · EPUB · 2.8MB · 2019 · 📘 非小说类图书 · 🚀/lgli/lgrs/nexusstc/zlib · Save
描述
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?).
The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles.
The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
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lgli/预测：方法与实践 中文第二版.epub
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lgrsnf/预测：方法与实践 中文第二版.epub
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zlib/Business & Economics/Mathematical Economics/it-ebooks/预测：方法与实践 中文第二版_16358362.epub
备选标题
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science (30))
备选标题
Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation (Statistics for Social and Behavioral Sciences)
备选标题
Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)
备选标题
Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting (Springer Texts in Statistics)
备选标题
Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle prediction
备选标题
Long-range forecasting : from crystal ball to computer
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Decision Analysis for Management 4e: Fourth Edition
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Decision analysis for management judgment
备选标题
Survey Methodology
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Visualizing Data
备选作者
Groves, Robert M., Fowler Jr., Floyd J., Couper, Mick P., Lepkowski, James M., Singer, Eleanor, Tourangeau, Roger
备选作者
Robert M. Groves; Floyd J. Fowler, Jr.; Mick P. Couper; James M. Lepkowski; Eleanor Singer; Roger Tourangeau
备选作者
Estela Bee Dagum; Silvia Bianconcini; École nationale supérieure des beaux-arts (France)
备选作者
George Edward Pelham Box; Gwilym M. Jenkins; Gregory C. Reinsel; Greta M. Ljung
备选作者
Box, George E. P., Jenkins, Gwilym M., Reinsel, Gregory C., Ljung, Greta M.
备选作者
Brockwell, Peter J., Davis, Richard A.
备选作者
Bee Dagum, Estela, Bianconcini, Silvia
备选作者
Peter J. Brockwell; Richard A. Davis
备选作者
Peter J. Brockwell, Davis, Richard A
备选作者
edited by J. Scott Armstrong
备选作者
Paul Goodwin, George Wright
备选作者
Robert Groves ... [et al.]
备选作者
Armstrong, Jon Scott
备选作者
William S. Cleveland
备选作者
John Scott Armstrong
备选作者
Goodwin, Paul
备用出版商
Springer International Publishing : Imprint : Springer
备用出版商
At & T Bell Laboratories ; [Published by Hobart Press
备用出版商
Springer International Publishing AG
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Jossey-Bass, Incorporated Publishers
备用出版商
John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
备用出版商
Springer Nature Switzerland AG
备用出版商
Kluwer Academic Publishers
备用出版商
Kluwer Academic; Springer
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WILEY COMPUTING Publisher
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Spectrum Publications
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Wiley-Blackwell
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Halsted Press
备用版本
International series in operations research & management science, Boston, MA, Massachusetts, 2001
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International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 1 edition, May 1, 2001
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Wiley series in probability and statistics, Fifth edition, Hoboken, New Jersey, 2016
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Statistics for social and behavioral sciences, 1st ed. 2016, Cham, 2016
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Springer Nature (Textbooks & Major Reference Works), Switzerland, 2016
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Wiley series in survey methodology, Second edition, Hoboken, N.J, 2009
备用版本
Statistics for social and behavioral sciences, Cham, Switzerland, 2016
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Wiley series in probability and statistics, 5. ed, Hoboken, NJ, 2016
备用版本
Wiley series in survey methodology, 2nd ed, Hoboken, NJ, ©2009
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Wiley series in survey methodology, 2nd ed, Oxford, 2009
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Springer texts in statistics, 3rd ed. 2016, Cham, 2016
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Murray Hill, N.J, [Summit, N.J, New Jersey, 1993
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Wiley-interscience publication, New York, 1978
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John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, N.J., 2009
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2nd ed., Hoboken, N.J, New Jersey, 2009
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United States, United States of America
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4th ed, Chichester, West Sussex, 2009
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4th ed., Hoboken, New Jersey, 2010
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Springer Nature, Boston, MA, 2001
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New York, New York State, 1978
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Switzerland, Switzerland
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1st ed. 2016, PS, 2016
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2001, PT, 2001
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4, 2009-09-11
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5, 2015-06-29
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1, 1993-03-01
备用版本
June 29, 2015
备用版本
Aug 20, 2016
备用版本
1, PS, 1993
备用版本
5, PS, 2015
元数据中的注释
lg2973502
元数据中的注释
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元数据中的注释
Includes bibliographical references and index
元数据中的注释
Includes bibliographical references (p. 341-346) and index.
元数据中的注释
"A Wiley-Interscience publication."
Includes indexes.
Bibliography: p. 492-580.
元数据中的注释
Bibliography: p. 492-580.
"A Wiley-Interscience publication."
Includes indexes.
元数据中的注释
Includes bibliographical references and index.
元数据中的注释
Source title: Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting (Springer Texts in Statistics)
备用描述
This Book Is Aimed At The Reader Who Wishes To Gain A Working Knowledge Of Time Series And Forecasting Methods As Applied To Economics, Engineering And The Natural And Social Sciences. It Assumes Knowledge Only Of Basic Calculus, Matrix Algebra And Elementary Statistics. This Third Edition Contains Detailed Instructions For The Use Of The Professional Version Of The Windows-based Computer Package Itsm2000, Now Available As A Free Download From The Springer Extras Website. The Logic And Tools Of Time Series Model-building Are Developed In Detail. Numerous Exercises Are Included And The Software Can Be Used To Analyze And Forecast Data Sets Of The User's Own Choosing. The Book Can Also Be Used In Conjunction With Other Time Series Packages Such As Those Included In R. The Programs In Itsm2000 However Are Menu-driven And Can Be Used With Minimal Investment Of Time In The Computational Details.^ The Core Of The Book Covers Stationary Processes, Arma And Arima Processes, Multivariate Time Series And State-space Models, With An Optional Chapter On Spectral Analysis. Many Additional Special Topics Are Also Covered. New To This Edition: A Chapter Devoted To Financial Time Series Introductions To Brownian Motion, Lévy Processes And Itô Calculus An Expanded Section On Continuous-time Arma Processes Peter J. Brockwell And Richard A. Davis Are Fellows Of The American Statistical Association And The Institute Of Mathematical Statistics And Elected Members Of The International Statistics Institute. Richard A. Davis Is The Current President Of The Institute Of Mathematical Statistics And, With W.t.m. Dunsmuir, Winner Of The Koopmans Prize. Professors Brockwell And Davis Are Coauthors Of The Widely Used Advanced Text, Time Series: Theory And Methods, Second Edition (springer-verlag, 1991).^ From Reviews Of The First Edition: < This Book, Like A Good Science Fiction Novel, Is Hard To Put Down.... Fascinating Examples Hold One’s Attention And Are Taken From An Astonishing Variety Of Topics And Fields.... Given That Time Series Forecasting Is Really A Simple Idea, It Is Amazing How Much Beautiful Mathematics This Book Encompasses. Each Chapter Is Richly Filled With Examples That Serve To Illustrate And Reinforce The Basic Concepts. The Exercises At The End Of Each Chapter Are Well Designed And Make Good Use Of Numerical Problems. Combined With The Itsm Package, This Book Is Ideal As A Textbook For The Self-study Student Or The Introductory Course Student. Overall Then, As A Text For A University-level Course Or As A Learning Aid For An Industrial Forecaster, I Highly Recommend The Book. –siam Review In Addition To Including Itsm, The Book Details All Of The Algorithms Used In The Package—a Quality Which Sets This Text Apart From All Others At This Level.^ This Is An Excellent Idea For At Least Two Reasons. It Gives The Practitioner The Opportunity To Use Itsm More Intelligently By Providing An Extra Source Of Intuition For Understanding Estimation And Forecasting, And It Allows The More Adventurous Practitioners To Code Their Own Algorithms For Their Individual Purposes.... Overall I Find Introduction To Time Series And Forecasting To Be A Very Useful And Enlightening Introduction To Time Series. –journal Of The American Statistical Association The Emphasis Is On Hands-on Experience And The Friendly Software That Accompanies The Book Serves The Purpose Admirably.... The Authors Should Be Congratulated For Making The Subject Accessible And Fun To Learn. The Book Is A Pleasure To Read And Highly Recommended. I Regard It As The Best Introductory Text In Town. –short Book Reviews, International Statistical Review. Introduction -- Stationary Processes -- Arma Models -- Spectral Analysis -- Modeling And Forecasting With Arma Processes -- Nonstationary And Seasonal Time Series Models -- Time Series Models For Financial Data -- Multivariate Time Series -- State-space Models -- Forecasting Techniques -- Further Topics -- Appendix A: Random Variables And Probability Distributions -- Appendix B: Statistical Complements -- Appendix C: Mean Square Convergence -- Appendix D: Lévy Processes, Brownian Motion And Itô Calculus -- Appendix E: An Itsm Tutorial -- References -- Index. By Peter J. Brockwell, Richard A. Davis.
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Topics Include Sampling Frame Evaluation, Sample Design, Development Of Questionnaires, Evaluation Of Questions, Alternative Modes Of Data Collection, Interviewing, Nonresponse, Post-collection Processing Of Survey Data, And Practices For Maintaining Scientific Integrity. An Introduction To Survey Methodology : A Brief History Of Survey Research ; Some Examples Of Ongoing Surveys ; What Is Survey Methodology? ; The Challenge Of Survey Methodology -- Inference And Error In Surveys : The Lifecycle Of A Survey From A Design Perspective ; The Lifecycle Of A Survey From A Quality Perspective ; Putting It All Together ; Error Notions In Different Kinds Of Statistics ; Nonstatistical Notions Of Survey Quality -- Target Populations, Sampling Frames, And Coverage Error : Populations And Frames ; Coverage Properties Of Sampling Frames ; Alternative Frames For The Target Population Of Households Or Persons ; Frame Issues For Other Common Target Populations ; Coverage Error ; Reducing Undercoverage --^ Sample Design And Sampling Error : Samples And Estimates ; Simple Random Sampling Random Sampling ; Cluster Sampling ; Stratification And Stratified Sampling ; Systematic Selection ; Complications In Practice ; Complications In Practice ; Sampling Us Telephone Households ; Selecting Persons Within Households -- Methods Of Data Collection : Alternative Methods Of Data Collection ; Choosing The Appropriate Method ; Effects Of Different Data Collection Methods On Survey Errors ; Using Multiple Modes Of Data Collection -- Nonresponse In Sample Surveys : Response Rates ; Impact Of Nonresponse On The Quality Of Survey Estimates ; Thinking Causally About Survey Nonresponse Error ; Dissecting The Nonresponse Phenomenon ; Design Features To Reduce Unit Nonresponse ; Item Nonresponse ; Are Nonresponse Propensities Related To Other Error Sources? --^ Questions And Answers In Surveys : Alternative Methods Of Survey Measurement ; Cognitive Processes In Answering Questions ; Problems In Answering Survey Questions ; Guidelines For Writing Good Questions -- Evaluating Survey Questions : Expert Reviews ; Focus Groups ; Cognitive Interviews ; Field Pretests And Behavior Coding ; Randomized Or Split-ballot Experiments ; Applying Question Standards ; Summary Of Question Evaluation Tools ; Linking Concepts Of Measurement Quality To Statistical Estimates -- Survey Interviewing : The Role Of The Interviewer ; Interviewer Bias ; Interviewer Variance ; Strategies For Reducing Interviewer Bias ; Strategies For Reducing Interviewer-related Variance ; The Controversy About Standardized Interviewing ; Interviewer Management ; Validating The Work Of Interviewers ; The Use Of Recorded Voices (and Faces) In Data Collection --^ Postcollection Processing Of Survey Data : Coding ; Entering Numeric Data Into Files ; Editing ; Weighting ; Imputation For Item-missing Data ; Sampling Variance Estimation For Complex Samples ; Survey Data Documentation And Metadata -- Principles And Practices Related To Ethical Research : Standards For The Conduct Of Research ; Standards For Dealing With Clients ; Standards For Dealing With The Public ; Standards For Dealing With Respondents ; Emerging Ethical Issues ; Research About Ethical Issues In Surveys ; Administrative And Technical Procedures For Safe-guarding Confidentiality ; Summary And Conclusions -- Faqs About Survey Methodology : The Questions And Their Answers. Robert M. Groves ... [et Al.]. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 421-450) And Index.
备用描述
Praise for the First Edition:'The book makes a valuable contribution by synthesizing current research and identifying areas for future investigation for each aspect of the survey process.'—Journal of the American Statistical Association'Overall, the high quality of the text material is matched by the quality of writing...'—Public Opinion Quarterly'... it should find an audience everywhere surveys are being conducted.'—Technometrics This new edition of Survey Methodology continues to provide a state-of-the-science presentation of essential survey methodology topics and techniques. The volume's six world-renowned authors have updated this Second Edition to present newly emerging approaches to survey research and provide more comprehensive coverage of the major considerations in designing and conducting a sample survey. Key topics in survey methodology are clearly explained in the book's chapters, with coverage including sampling frame evaluation, sample design, development of questionnaires, evaluation of questions, alternative modes of data collection, interviewing, nonresponse, post-collection processing of survey data, and practices for maintaining scientific integrity. Acknowledging the growing advances in research and technology, the Second Edition features: Updated explanations of sampling frame issues for mobile telephone and web surveys New scientific insight on the relationship between nonresponse rates and nonresponse errors Restructured discussion of ethical issues in survey research, emphasizing the growing research results on privacy, informed consent, and confidentiality issues The latest research findings on effective questionnaire development techniques The addition of 50% more exercises at the end of each chapter, illustrating basic principles of survey design An expanded FAQ chapter that addresses the concerns that accompany newly established methods Providing valuable and informative perspectives on the most modern methods in the field, Survey Methodology, Second Edition is an ideal book for survey research courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an indispensable reference for practicing survey methodologists and any professional who employs survey research methods.
备用描述
Bridging classical models and modern topics, the _Fifth Edition_ of _Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control_ maintains a balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series. Also describing the latest developments that have occurred in the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering, the _Fifth Edition_ continues to serve as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject.
_Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control_, _Fifth Edition_ provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, classifying, testing, and analyzing stochastic models for time series and describes their use in five important areas of application: forecasting; determining the transfer function of a system; modeling the effects of intervention events; developing multivariate dynamic models; and designing simple control schemes. Along with these classical uses, the new edition covers modern topics with new features that include:
* A redesigned chapter on multivariate time series analysis with an expanded treatment of Vector Autoregressive, or VAR models, along with a discussion of the analytical tools needed for modeling vector time series
* An expanded chapter on special topics covering unit root testing, time-varying volatility models such as ARCH and GARCH, nonlinear time series models, and long memory models
* Numerous examples drawn from finance, economics, engineering, and other related fields
* The use of the publicly available R software for graphical illustrations and numerical calculations along with scripts that demonstrate the use of R for model building and forecasting
* Updates to literature references throughout and new end-of-chapter exercises
* Streamlined chapter introductions and revisions that update and enhance the exposition
_Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition_ is a valuable real-world reference for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis, econometrics, finance, and related fields. The book is also an excellent textbook for beginning graduate-level courses in advanced statistics, mathematics, economics, finance, engineering, and physics.
备用描述
Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
备用描述
Praise for the Fourth Edition "The book follows faithfully the style of the original edition. The approach is heavily motivated by real-world time series, and by developing a complete approach to model building, estimation, forecasting and control."
Mathematical Reviews Bridging classical models and modern topics, the Fifth Edition of Time Series Forecasting and Control maintains a balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series. Also describing the latest developments that have occurred in the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering, the Fifth Edition continues to serve as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. Time Series Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, classifying, testing, and analyzing stochastic models for time series and describes their use in five important areas of forecasting; determining the transfer function of a system; modeling the effects of intervention events; developing multivariate dynamic models; and designing simple control schemes. Along with these classical uses, the new edition covers modern topics with new features that Time Series Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition is a valuable real-world reference for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis, econometrics, finance, and related fields. The book is also an excellent textbook for beginning graduate-level courses in advanced statistics, mathematics, economics, finance, engineering, and physics.
备用描述
This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.
备用描述
This work summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies, providing guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (how much is this company worth?), marketing (will a new product be successful?), personnel (how can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (what level of inventories should be kept?). The 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods, including judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of "if-then principles", and they summarize evidence on these principles
备用描述
Visualizing Data is about visualization
tools that provide deep insight into the
structure of data. There are graphical
tools such as coplots, multiway dot plots,
and the equal count algorithm. There are
fitting tools such as loess and bisquare
that fit equations, nonparametric curves,
and nonparametric surfaces to data.
But the book is much more than just a
compendium of useful tools. It conveys a
strategy for data analysis that stresses
the use of visualization to thoroughly
study the structure of data and to check
the validity of statistical models fitted
to data. The result of the tools and the
strategy is a vast increase in what you can
learn from your data. The book demonstrates
this by reanalyzing many data sets from the
scientific literature, revealing missed
effects and inappropriate models fitted
to data.
备用描述
In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis plays a key role in helping managers gain a greater understanding of the situations they face. This updated classic offers unrivalled coverage of the problems associated with unaided managerial decision making and the methods designed to overcome them, all presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner. The Third Edition is extensively updated and reflects new developments such as 'fast and frugal heuristics' and "structured risk management". A new website will offer links, additional exercises and case studies, and downloadable Excel spreadsheets.
备用描述
Praise for the Fourth Edition "The book follows faithfully the style of the original edition. The approach is heavily motivated by real-world time series, and by developing a complete approach to model building, estimation, forecasting and control.""--Mathematical Reviews Bridging classical models and modern topics, the Fifth Edition of Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control maintains a balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series. Also describing the latest developments that have occurred in the field over the past decade through application
备用描述
In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation
备用描述
Written by six experts, this new edition covers the major considerations, both classic and newly developed, in designing and conducting a sample survey. This update represents the latest developments in survey methodology, focusing on the increasing use of the internet and mobile phones for conducting survey research
备用描述
This work summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies, providing guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. The 30 chapters cover various forecsating methods, from judgemental to quantitative
备用描述
Decision analysis plays a key role in helping managers gain a greater understanding of the situations they face. This title offers coverage of the problems associated with unaided managerial decision making and the methods designed to overcome them
备用描述
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary
备用描述
J. Scott Armstrong. A Wiley-interscience Publication. Includes Indexes. Bibliography: P. 492-580.
备用描述
Statistics for Social and Behavioral Sciences
Erscheinungsdatum: 27.06.2016
备用描述
Springer Texts in Statistics
Erscheinungsdatum: 31.08.2016
开源日期
2021-03-29
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