As the nationâ€TMs economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices.
Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. __Next Generation Earth System Predictions__ presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nationâ€TMs S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

nexusstc/Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts/bdc3d3bf56388b17c8595fa769ec9e85.pdf

lgli/NextGenerationEarthSystemPrediction16.pdf

lgrsnf/NextGenerationEarthSystemPrediction16.pdf

zlib/Biology and other natural sciences/Ecology/Engineering, and Medicine National Academies of Sciences, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Ocean Studies Board, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting/Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts_2838232.pdf

Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Staff, Division on Earth and Life Studies Staff, Ocean Studies Board Staff

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Ocean Studies Board, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting

Engineering, and Medicine National Academies of Sciences, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Ocean Studies Board, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA

Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP)

United States, United States of America

Washington, D.C, 2016

0

lg1594996

{"isbns":["0309388805","9780309388801"],"last_page":350,"publisher":"National Academies Press"}

"As the nations economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nations S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times"-- Publisher's description

Cover 1
NEXT GENERATION EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTION 2
Preface 12
Contents 14
Summary -1
1 Introduction -1
2 History and Current Status of S2S Forecasting -1
3 Enhancing the Value and Benefits of S2S Forecasts -1
4 Sources of Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictability -1
5 S2S Forecast Systems: Capabilities, Gaps, and Potential -1
6 Interface Between Research and Operations -1
7 Cyberinfrastructure and Workforce Capacity Building -1
8 Vision and Way Forward for S2S Earth System Prediction -1
Acronym List -1
References -1
Appendix A: Committee's Statement of Task -1
Appendix B: Details of Seasonal and Subseasonal Forecast Systems -1
Appendix C: Past, Current, and Planned Major International Process Studies -1
Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members -1

2016-12-08