Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyzes a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, T.V. games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favor. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire? " and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.

nexusstc/Taking Chances: Winning with Probability/84f2464a8358e586fc4c82b613e3c719.pdf

lgli/Taking_Chances_978-0-19-852663-6.pdf

lgrsnf/Taking_Chances_978-0-19-852663-6.pdf

zlib/Fiction/Humour/John Haigh/Taking Chances: Winning with Probability_2611714.pdf

Haigh, John Dr

IRL Press at Oxford University Press

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

German Historical Institute London

OUP Oxford

United Kingdom and Ireland, United Kingdom

Oxford University Press USA, Oxford, 2003

New ed., Oxford, New York, England, 2003

New edition, Oxford ; New York, 2003

REV. ED., OXFORD, Unknown

Reprint, 2005

0

lg1401502

{"isbns":["0198526636","9780198526636"],"last_page":400,"publisher":"Oxford University Press"}

Includes bibliographical references (p. [366]-368) and index.

Cover 1
Contents 12
1 What is probability? 16
Think straight 18
The inviolable rule 19
Some working methods 20
Long runs 22
Averages and variability 24
2 Lotteries 28
Your chance of winning 29
A winning strategy? 35
More than one ticket? 42
Other lotteries 45
Are the numbers drawn really random? 47
Summary 53
Postscript 54
3 Football Pools, Premium Bonds 56
Football Pools 56
Premium Bonds 61
The best gamble? 65
4 One coin, many games 69
How's your intuition? 69
Game on 71
Penney-ante 74
How long are you in the lead? 79
Postscript 85
Summary 85
Test yourself quiz 86
5 Dice 88
One die 88
Two dice—backgammon 90
Two dice—Monopoly 99
Two dice—craps 102
Three or more dice—totals 103
Four dice—Chevalier de Méré's problem 105
Bettering an opponent 106
Fairground games 107
6 Games with few choices 110
The dating game 111
An easier game 112
A fisherman's tale 113
Back to Table 6.2 114
A fair game? 117
Finding the best strategies 118
Other games 120
Two choices for Roy, many for Colin 126
Counter signals 127
Games animals play 131
The battle of the sexes 135
Postscript 138
Summary 139
Test yourself quiz 141
7 Waiting, waiting, waiting 143
Birthdays 143
The Spoilers (2) 147
Other matches 149
More than one match? 151
Packs of cards (1) 152
Packs of cards (2) 154
Card/coupon collecting 157
The secretary problem 162
8 Let's play best of three 166
Snooker-type games 167
Darts 173
Squash-type games 175
Anyone for tennis? 178
Summary 182
9 TV games 183
Find the lady 183
The Showcase showdown 185
Who wants to be a millionaire? 188
Shafted 193
The Weakest Link 194
Blockbusters 199
Postscript 204
10 Casino games 206
Roulette 207
Casino stud poker 223
Baccarat chemin de fer 232
Other casino games 235
Test yourself quiz 237
11 Bookies, the Tote, spread betting 239
Bookmakers 239
Can you win from the bookies? 250
The Tote 253
Spread betting 255
12 This sporting life 262
Soccer 262
Golf 270
Cricket 272
Tennis 276
Tournament formats 279
13 Lucky for some—miscellanea 286
Cards–whist, bridge 286
Shuffling 292
Dividing the prize 294
Vowel or consonant? 295
Benford's law 298
Guess the other colour 302
At least two Aces? 303
Which player is favoured? 306
The birthday gift 308
Two paradoxes 309
14 Probability for lawyers 314
Conditional probability 316
Baves' Theorem 320
Two fallacies 327
Other matters 329
Test yourself quiz 334
Appendix I. Counting 336
Appendix II. Probability 342
Appendix III. Averages and variability 354
Appendix IV. Goodness-of-fit tests 364
Appendix V. The Kelly strategy 372
Solutions to test yourself quizzes 376
Literature cited 381
Index 384
A 384
B 384
C 384
D 385
E 385
F 385
G 385
H 385
I 386
J 386
K 386
L 386
M 386
N 386
O 386
P 386
Q 386
R 386
S 387
T 387
U 387
V 387
W 388

What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on'Who Wants to be a Millionaire?'and'The Weakest Link', plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.

"What are the odds against winning the Lotto, The Weakest Link, or Who Wants to be a Millionaire? The answer lies in the science of probability, yet many of us are unaware of how this science works. Every day, people make judgements on a wide variety of situations where chance plays a role, including buying insurance, betting on horse-racing, following medical advice - even carrying an umbrella. In Taking Chances, John Haigh guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better-informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on top television shows, plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers."--Jacket

<p><p>an Easy-to-read, Fun Look At Some Common Probability Traps And Fallacies And How They Can Be Used To Put The Odds In The Reader's Favor. Written By A Math Expert, Who Uses Real-life Examples That Can Be Understood By General Readers, <b>taking Chances&#58; Winning With Probability</b> Shows How To Make Better Betting Decisions In Such Games Of Chance As&#58; Lotteries, Football Pools, Dice, Roulette, Card Games, Tv Game Shows, Horse Racing, And Betting With Bookies. It Will Interest All Those Who Are Interested In Gaining The Extra Advantage When It Comes To Winning The Lottery, Making Money In The Casino, Winning The Football Pool, Or Backing The Right Horse.</p>

"Taking Chances presents an entertaining and accessible guide that aims to help the reader to improve their ability to work with probabilities. By describing and analysing a wide range of situations in which chance plays a role, such as the lottery, football pools, roulette, and card games, the book guides the reader around many of the common pitfalls and controversies that surround probability."--BOOK JACKET.

2015-10-24